Capacity Planning for Roadmap | Realistic Forecasts
Roadmaps fail when capacity isn't understood. GitScrum provides velocity history and Reports for realistic planning and honest stakeholder conversations.
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Roadmap commitments fail when capacity isn't understood. GitScrum provides velocity history and Reports that help teams understand their actual throughput—enabling realistic roadmap planning and honest stakeholder conversations about what's achievable.
Capacity Planning Challenges
Why Roadmaps Fail
CAPACITY PLANNING PROBLEMS:
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ WHY DELIVERY DATES SLIP │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │
│ ❌ NO HISTORICAL DATA: │
│ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐│
│ │ • "How long will this take?" "Maybe 2 months?" ││
│ │ • Guessing without past performance data ││
│ │ • Same mistakes repeated ││
│ │ • No way to calibrate estimates ││
│ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘│
│ │
│ ❌ IGNORING OVERHEAD: │
│ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐│
│ │ • Planning assumes 100% feature work ││
│ │ • Meetings, support, bugs ignored ││
│ │ • Real capacity is 50-70% of time ││
│ │ • Features take longer than expected ││
│ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘│
│ │
│ ❌ SCOPE CREEP: │
│ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐│
│ │ • "Just add this small thing" ││
│ │ • Requirements grow without dates adjusting ││
│ │ • Original estimate becomes impossible ││
│ │ • Team blamed for "missing deadlines" ││
│ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘│
│ │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
Velocity-Based Planning
Using Historical Data
CAPACITY CALCULATION:
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ DATA-DRIVEN ROADMAP PLANNING │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │
│ 1. MEASURE VELOCITY: │
│ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐│
│ │ Sprint 1: 28 points completed ││
│ │ Sprint 2: 32 points completed ││
│ │ Sprint 3: 26 points completed ││
│ │ Sprint 4: 30 points completed ││
│ │ ││
│ │ Average: 29 points per sprint ││
│ │ Range: 26-32 points (for uncertainty) ││
│ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘│
│ │
│ 2. SIZE ROADMAP ITEMS: │
│ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐│
│ │ Feature A: 45 points (estimated) ││
│ │ Feature B: 30 points ││
│ │ Feature C: 60 points ││
│ │ Feature D: 25 points ││
│ │ ││
│ │ Total: 160 points ││
│ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘│
│ │
│ 3. FORECAST DELIVERY: │
│ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐│
│ │ At 29 points/sprint: ││
│ │ 160 points ÷ 29 = 5.5 sprints ││
│ │ ││
│ │ Add buffer (20%): 6.6 sprints ││
│ │ Round up: 7 sprints (~3.5 months) ││
│ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘│
│ │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
GitScrum Reports
Data for Planning
| Report | Planning Use |
|---|---|
| Cumulative Flow | Historical throughput |
| Velocity history | Sprint-by-sprint capacity |
| Project Age | Stagnation risk |
| Activity Heatmap | Team engagement patterns |
Capacity Factors
Real vs Ideal Capacity
| Factor | Impact |
|---|---|
| Meetings | -10-15% |
| Support/bugs | -15-20% |
| On-call | -5-10% |
| Vacation/sick | -10% |
| Context switching | -5-10% |
Realistic Capacity
CAPACITY REALITY:
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ ADJUSTING FOR REALITY │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ │
│ TEAM OF 5 DEVELOPERS: │
│ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐│
│ │ Theoretical: 5 × 40 hours = 200 hours/week ││
│ │ ││
│ │ Deductions: ││
│ │ - Meetings: -20 hours ││
│ │ - Support/bugs: -30 hours ││
│ │ - Admin/email: -10 hours ││
│ │ - Context switch: -10 hours ││
│ │ ││
│ │ Real capacity: 130 hours/week ││
│ │ Utilization: 65% ││
│ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘│
│ │
│ PLANNING IMPLICATION: │
│ ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐│
│ │ Use 65% of theoretical capacity for roadmap ││
│ │ Or measure velocity (includes all this naturally) ││
│ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘│
│ │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘